Annual water volume has dropped significantly in the Colorado River system and those reductions are believed to be symptoms of a new, reduced average supply. The Colorado is shared among seven states and 30 federally recognized Colorado Basin Indian tribes, so new allocations must be negotiated and unresolved tribal claims must be accommodated. The Town of Carefree currently receives about 69% of its annual supply from the Colorado system, so it is obviously important for the Town to monitor these changes and take action to safeguard our water future.
Despite these uncertainties, however, Carefree is in a relatively strong position regarding its entitlement to water. The Town has developed a legal framework to handle quite large supply shocks, but though we are generally well positioned for these possible events it is in this area that forward thinking plans are still necessary.
First is a brief discussion of the facts as they exist today.
As suggested above, the biggest portion of Carefree water usage, both by entitlement and by actual usage, is from the Colorado River through the Central Arizona Project (CAP). We also have a modestly sized aquifer (the Carefree sub-basin) that makes a significant contribution (all quantities are annual withdrawals in acre-feet, or AF):
| Source | Allocation | Current (est) | Max Build-out (est) |
| CAP | 1,790 | 929 | 1,170 |
| Carefree Aquifer | 500 * | 411 | 433 |
| Total | 2,290 | 1,340 | 1,603 |
‘* Carefree aquifer “allocation” is the allowed amount of ‘non-emergency’ use water available for withdrawal by agreement with Scottsdale (more can be withdrawn in emergency situations).
Note 1: The ‘Current’ column contains the Carefree Water Company’s (CWC’s) estimate for water usage going forward, assuming current development. The Tom Darlington reservoir has been completely on-line for more than a month now. As the primary water source for the entire southwest portion of Carefree (north of Carefree Highway and west of 64th Street) it provides potable water and fire flow to area residents as well as the commercial area near the Cave Creek and Carefree Hwy intersection. Since achievement of this milestone marks the virtual completion of the Carefree Water Consolidation Project, the quantities in this column can also serve as an estimate for 2024 calendar year.
Note 2: The CAP allocation includes 112 AF of NIA (non-Indian agricultural) allocation that is among the first water allocations to be withdrawn in times of Colorado River shortages. The rest of the allocation (1,678 AF) is M&I (Municipal and Industrial) allocation, which conveys much higher priority rights.
The first point to note is that our current CAP allocation would be sufficient for all anticipated use in Carefree, even at full Town build-out. And this is true even if NIA water is not included.
Again, long-term Colorado River water deliveries are under threat due to a long-term drying trend at the Colorado headwaters. While very concerning, these threats are expected to hit agricultural users hardest (they currently account for 72% of all water consumption in Arizona), with municipalities expected to be relatively less affected.
Our relatively large CAP allocation also allows Carefree to use CAP water exclusively for permitting all future development, which eliminates the need for demonstrating 100-year assured water supplies. And this is fortunate because we can’t currently assure 100-year availability from our aquifer.
The Carefree Water Company’s (CWC’s) best estimate is that current aquifer withdrawal amounts by Carefree, Scottsdale and private wells is approximately equal to the recharge rate, so our current usage of 400 AF per year may well be sustainable. This estimate, however, is based on very limited data and could well be significantly in error, so it is currently not possible to certify any aquifer usage rate as sustainable. It might therefore seem prudent to increase our current usage of CAP water in order to reduce aquifer usage significantly until we have more reliable information on sustainability, but this type of water conservation strategy would come at a cost. This is because the cost to the CWC for aquifer water is less than 20% of the cost of CAP water. Reducing the usage of aquifer water from the current 411 AF per year to a more conservative 300 AF would increase total water acquisition costs by more than 20%, which would obviously show up eventually in higher customer rates.
Finally, water and energy provider SRP is studying a proposed enlargement of Bartlett Reservoir on the Verde River in the Salt River Project region, and Carefree is a project participant. This project, if realized, could eventually provide Carefree with an average of 300 AF of additional water per year, though it would come very irregularly, with individual year deliveries ranging from zero to possibly 1,200 AF. There is currently no plan to manage and incorporate such a variable supply into the CWC system, but the project is not yet approved and is still many years away from completion.
The recent Carefree Water Consolidation Project has brought almost all Town residents into the Carefree water system, further increasing our CAP surplus while extending our relatively privileged position on water security to nearly all our residents. There are certainly challenges ahead, and careful management of our CWC system and water acquisition choices will be necessary. But Carefree’s ample CAP allocation, sizable aquifer, and possible access to a future third water source make the Town very well situated to deal with future changes in Arizona water availability.
Carefree Unity 3/21/2024
Carefree Unity 