The Federal Bureau of Reclamation, tasked with establishing a sustainable long-term conservation plan for water deliveries in the Colorado River system, has long tried to meet its obligation through consensus among the seven Colorado Basin states. Historically this has been a contentious process that has dragged on year after year as water levels have continued to fall, but last May the states finally reached a historic deal, which was formally accepted last week by the Bureau. The catch? This is a short-term deal that will expire in 2026.
A long-term deal still has major obstacles, but some progress has been made. The Navajo Nation and Hopi and San Juan Southern Paiute Tribes have recently reached agreements for water rights for both the upper and lower basins, leaving the Gila River Indian community as the largest traditional user pursuing an independent path. California and Arizona have agreed to a compromise framework for dealing with Arizona’s legal position as junior rights holder, which had been an unresolved issue until recently. And all seven states have agreed that the provisions of the short-term deal will also apply long term, as long as water levels in system reservoirs remain where they currently are.
But of course, water levels are not expected to remain where they are. The good news is that there are now only two major long-term plans, which were both unveiled last week. Less positive news is that there is a very wide gap between them. The upper basin states (Colorado, Utah, New Mexico and Wyoming) propose that further drops in water levels of Lake Powell and Lake Mead will lead to reductions in water releases to the lower basin states (Arizona, California and Nevada). In contrast, the lower basin states propose to add an additional five (upper basin) reservoirs to the measurement system, and to apportion any additional cutbacks in water usage across all seven states in both basins.
The Bureau of Reclamation has established the deadlines and will continue to apply pressure to move the process forward, and though the issues are still very large, the trajectory is positive.
It is still too early to report projected outcomes, but for residents of Carefree some aspects are coming into focus. Whatever the final compromise, the following elements are virtually certain:
· The Colorado River system will continue to falter, and the 1.5 million acre-feet reduction that the lower basin states have agreed to in the short-term will eventually be reduced further, perhaps modestly but possibly to a total of about 4 million acre-feet, because the sustainable annual flow for the system is likely to ultimately be 11 million acre-feet or less, rather than the 15 million acre-feet that is now allocated.
· Arizona, with our junior water-rights status, will take the largest cut on a percentage basis. The short-term deal has already cut the Arizona allocation by more than 20%, and it is very realistic to expect much larger reductions in the future.
· The Colorado River accounts for about 40% of Arizona water consumption, and a roughly equal amount comes from groundwater, which is also currently being used at an unsustainable rate. Though most of the remaining 20% is from more sustainable sources (Salt and Verde rivers, high quality treated wastewater), the total sustainable water use in Arizona is clearly much lower than current consumption.
· Federal approval of the Central Arizona Project is the historical reason for the junior water rights status of Arizona, and supplies through the CAP will face special uncertainties.
Carefree is primarily supplied through the CAP, but there are some special factors that make our water supply more secure than most neighboring municipalities. We will publish a detailed look at the situation for Carefree in a follow-on report.
Carefree Unity March 12,2024
Carefree Unity 